Baseball Picks

We are getting close to the happiest day of the year - Tuesday, 6 in the morning - opening day! Nihon de! Time for some picks - I did this last year: got most of the AL right, botched the NL completely, but so did everyone, and you could have probably picked teams with a week to go and got none of them right. Given how completely the Mets and Padres choked... so here goes again...

American League:
East:
1) Boston - I have to pick them again. They brought back most of the team; they are reasonably young, so not likely to get hurt by injuries - they're going to be tough for a while. Though as usual, an injury or two to the wrong people and they're out of the playoffs. Losing Zumaya and the Gambler, probably, kept the Tigers on the sidelines last October, and that could happen here... But all things being equal, Boston's going to be near the top.
2) Yankees - pains me to say it, but I suspect they will hang around. See below for more reasons.
3) Toronto - I'd like to see them beat the Yanks - and they could, except they seem to have the worst luck, and unlike the Red Sox (and Yankees, somewhat) they don't have the depth to survive any injuries to key players. That's brought them down the last couple years. I think they have a better team than the Yankees though, and could even break better than the Red Sox, but they need everyone to be healthy and play well.
4) Tampa Bay - one of these years they are going to be halfway decent. Shields and Kazmir might get them started on the road, though they've almost had decent pitchers before. They have a solid array of nice young hitters, but have for awhile: until they start getting people out, they'll continue to stink.
5) Baltimore - can only dream of respectability.

Central:
1) Detroit - a murderer's row lineup, a couple prime pitchers - though behind the top of the rotation, things turn sour quickly, and there's not much waiting in the wings. So odds are they win the division, but it's hardly a sure thing...
2) Cleveland - there's no reason they can't maintain last year's success, even get better - they have decent hitters and all, and they are way deep in the pen, with 5-6 effective relievers - though oddly, the least of them get to pitch the 9th... this should be a good race in any case,between them and the Tigers, and I suspect this is where the wild card will come from this year.
3) KC - every year you have to pick someone to make a jump up or down - why not the royals? They were not bad last year - Greinke seems to be back on track; Brian Bannister emerged as a solid pitcher; Gil Meche brought stability... they have some good relievers - and some very interesting young players. If Butler and Gordon build on last year, they might get into hailing distance of being a decent team.
4) Chicago - still a complete wild card. Is Ozzie Guillen crazy? will they figure out who plays and who doesn't? will they have enough pitchers? I don't have a clue. I don't think they can win it this year, but otherwise, I have no idea what to expect. Somewhere between 65-85 wins, I guess.
5) Minnesota - everything must go! I hope Joe Nathan keeps his bags packed. It looks like another trip to the wilderness for the Twinkies, though like most of their disintegrations, this one probably won't last all that long. They still have nice core in Morneau, Mauer (if he can stay on the field), Young, Liriano (if he's healthy) - when a couple more of their young pitchers develop, they could be back in the hunt. Though probably not in time for Nathan or Morneau to benefit, not in Minnesota...

West:
1) California Angels - it's not a sure thing, but they do look strong: deep rotation, solid pen, Vlad, plus Figgins, Hunter, Anderson, and some promising youngsters - they should hang on to first.
2) Seattle - though the Mariners could get there too. Bedard ad King Felix is a nice way to start a rotation; Putz a nice way to end games; Ichiro is Ichiban, and they have decent talent around him, though nothing overwhelming. I think their chances depend more on something going wrong for the Angels, but they could be in the middle of things.
3) Texas - they might have rebuilt quicker and better than I thought - they have a lot of young talent - Kinsler, Hamilton, Saltamacchia [I'm not looking up how thats spelled] - though as usual it's all offensive talent. Odds are probably pretty good that more than one of those guys will, after blossoming in Arlington, will seek their fortunes elsewhere in a year or two, like Soriano, Texeira, etc.
4) Oakland - out with the old in with the new! maybe. Until the new is ready, the A's can look up to the rest of the division. Unless Texas pulls its usual disappearance.

NL:
East:
1) NY Mets - Santana helps. They had the best team last year, but ran out of pitching - same as the year before (though they did it in the playoffs in 06). Santana ands Maine though should stay on the field, and that might be enough to win.
2) Atlanta - they have some pitching depth, they have some nice hitters, they have Bobby Cox - they should be all right. They are more likely to vulture someone else's collapse though..
3) Philly - they can hit, but they are in trouble on the hill. They have gone 7 years winning in the 80s - tied for the longest stretch of that brand of mediocrity ever. I think this year they take the record.
4) Washington - actually look like they might have the start of a decent team. "Decent" is a relative term, of course.
5) Florida - they have the best player in the national league.

Central:
1) Milwaukee - why not? they were close last year - this year, why not? they have a very god core of young hitters, who could improve this year - Hall was off, Hardy collapsed - why not? if their pitching holds up, they should win.
2) Chicago - about the same as last year, aren't they? there is plenty of room for either improvement or collapse - of more of the same.
3) Cincinnati - another possibly up and coming squad: they need some pitchers to develop,and better innings from Arroyo, they need Cordero to be effective and others to emerge behind him, they need the young hitters to play well. If those things happen, they could content - it's still a weak enough division that if a bunch of them happen, they could win it.
4) Houston - their rotation is hideous. Their lineup though might save them. At least keep them around .500, and from there, who knows.
5) St. Louis - they've been coming apart for the last couple years,though they had 2 good weeks in 2006 and won it all. I don't think they will be in any position to do that again.
6) Pittsburgh - the what - 10th? - team so far that, if their young pitching develops this year, could take a major leap forward. Well - something forward: they don't have much in the way of a team on the field.

West:
1) Arizona - they added pitching over the winter, though their biggest problem last year was hitting - but they have a team of young hitters, who were inconsistent last year - seems to me the odds are good that Drew and Reynolds and Young will all get better - and they should get something out of Upton: so they might be about to start a run of championships.
2) San Diego - still have a great, deep pitching staff - though old; old and mediocre offense, though some of those guys - Kouzmanoff, or however he spells it, say - could step up. They'll take the division if other teams stumble.
3) Colorado - pitching remains a question, but they can hit, catch the ball, and they do have some nice young pitching talent. Might be asking a bit too much to expect them to have full seasons. Odds are they won't be able to play .500 for 145 games and still get to the world series though.
4) LA - can Joe Torre integrate his kids into the rest of the lineup? I'm not sure. I don't know how things will go out there. Could be a contender, could disappear. I'll be boring and split the difference - 85 wins in a strong division.
5) Sa Francisco - they too have some nice pitching. But Benji Molina is their cleanup hitter.

And so: playoff teams?
Boston - Detroit - Anaheim + Cleveland: Boston wins through.
New York - Milwaukee - Arizona + Atlanta: Mets, what the hell. It's a rematch of 1986! Revenge!!!

Awards?
MVP: I suppose it's A Rod's to lose in the AL. If that happy event occurs - who knows - Manny? Ortiz? Victor Martinez? Ordonez? Granderson? Miguel Cabrera? There's a lot of talent to choose among.
NL: I'll say this year is David Wright's year - the odd thing is that the best NL players are way more interesting than the best AL players - Wright, Ramirez, Utley and Rollins, Reyes, Fielder and Howard, Holliday, Tulowitsky,Braun - the AL has been beating theNL up for a while, but those days may be coming to an end.

Cy Young: AL - Josh Beckett, dammit! NL - hey: the best two pitches in baseball are out there - Santana and Peavy. Santana wins this year.

Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury! vs. Justin Upton? I don't know - we'll see.