World Cup 2026

My friends, the World Cup is back, in the USA, Mexico and Canada this time, with 48 teams - is that a good idea? I apologize to my reader for not posting about the 2022 World Cup - I managed a whole 7 posts that year, but nothing about the World Cup! That whole mess was a disgrace, in Qatar - though the cup itself turns out all right. The games on the field usually manage to salvage something - even when they suck - they are so much fun to watch.

I come into this one knowing as little as I have known since - lord, 2006 at least, maybe 2002 - I have not been watching soccer, I maintain just the passing sort of nostalgic interest these days. I wonder how much difference that makes? It looks like the usual suspects are going to win it - France, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, England all half hoping - can I tell you anything intelligent about any of them? Messi is still playing, so are Christiano Ronaldo and Luca Modric, probably more relevantly, so are Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, Bruno Fernandez, and maybe others I have heard of. Not good. That isn't what is going to stop me from trying to guess what's coming next - what's going to stop me is the ridiculous format. 

48 teams, playing into a 32 team knockout round. That's 8 third place teams getting to the next round (out of 12). That - is not conducive to prediction. There are lots of teams that could steal a couple, get into the quarters ahead of a powerhouse, even the Semis. for all that, the former is very likely to bring back a duller brand of soccer than we have seen lately - more minnows, meaning more 6-0 thrashing and 0-0 bus parkings, lots of incentive not to give up goals, so more defense - and a longer tournament, favoring deeper teams, as well as, again, more incentive to park the bus. And of course midsummer Texas heat. 

All right. I am going to take a stab at it - not that I know enough to say anything intelligent about any of it. Here goes - a quick assessment of the tiers of the cup:

S - teams that can win if they don't choke - this is Spain, France and Argentina, I think. If they play their games, they will get to the quarters and probably the semis, and 2 of them will probably make the finals.

A - teams that if things click can win it all: Brazil is not fancied, but they are Brazil; Germany has stunk in the last two cups, but they are themselves Germany. England is solid, and if they play they have the talent. And Portugal - they have a great team, they still have Ronaldo (whether that is good or bad is an open question - though they can always stick him in the box for the last 20 minutes of a game and hope he gets on a cross or a strong gust of wind comes through while a defender is within reach of him.) Or maybe they sit him and win anyway.

B - These are teams that need to massively overachieve I think, but can, and could get into the semis or win it, though it would be news: Morocco seems to have kept up what they were doing in 2022; Netherlands, Belgium - they still have talent; Croatia, until they prove they can't; Columbia seems to have some talent - they could do something. Mexico can ride the home field advantage, who knows how far. And Norway, because of Erling Haaland, and a good team, and who knows.

C - teams that are good enough to make some noise, but aren't going to win it: USA, Turkey, Senegal probably, South Korea, maybe Sweden? There might be some others - this area teams that look like a good pool for overachievement. 

Of course in the event, there will be shocking chokes, upsets and all the rest. Though the odds are all too good that the semis will be France, Spain, Argentina and Brazil, or maybe England. Someone will get into that mix, I imagine. Argentina is on a path to play Portugal in the quarters - the whole Brazil bracket looks like an upset waiting to happen. England might be favorites over them - and they could have to get past teams like Mexico, Netherlands or Croatia, Mexico, Senegal, and so on - things could get weird. And all of this is leaving out the possibility that someone like Portugal or Spain play for 3 ties, and sneak in as a random third place - who knows.

All things considered then? France is probably going to win. If I were betting I think I would put it on Portugal - bet those odds are better, and they are still a good team. In any case, much as this whole thing annoys me this year (the USA does not deserve to be hosting a World Cup; I do not like the trend of dividing these things up; 48 teams is ridiculous) I expect to be very entertained.

Platner Again

Graham Platner won. This is not a surprise - he was running unopposed, basically. I did not vote for him - primaries are where you get to vote what you want, whether it's policies or people or whatever grudges you might hold. I have no problem with primaries, even against entrenched figures - this is where you move the needle. And you don't get what you want - you nod your head and work on getting the nominee elected.

I should add - this is not the worst thing ever. For all my kvetching about him, he has his points. He has done bad things in the past - but they are in the past and people change. If he has changed - he has good points. He certainly talks a good game - tax the rich, clean up politics, etc - he seems to be on the right side in most cultural debates. His message is very appealing. I would be happier if he hadn't done or said the things he did and said, but I can live with them if he has really changed and if he delivers on his platform. If he does what he says, he could be a very good senator. And even if he doesn't, as long as he votes with the Democrats when he's supposed to - the party matters more than the person.

My most important worry is that he won't deliver on what he says. He has no political track record. He has plenty of personal track record, and most of it is bad. He can say anything he wants now, and once he's in, he's in. What then? Again - the D vote is worth almost anything, but you can never be sure of even that. There are too many precedents for people who talked well but didn't walk the walk, from Gabbard to Sinema to Fetterman (who's been beefing with Platner - Fetterman's hate might be a better endorsement than Sanders'.) So - that worries me. And it worries me that things keep coming out about him - are they done? Are they going to find anything really bad about him, that he can't explain away with a chorus of "I Saw The Light"? Can he, in short, really beat Susan Collins?

I don't know. I worry. But I am going to vote for him, barring some real disaster - and not going to hate myself for it. And if he is what he says he is - god bless him indeed!

Primary Season 2026

The primaries in Maine are coming on Tuesday, and I think I have to dip into this thing to say something. It is not a pleasant task. We stand at a point in history where every election feels like the fate of the nation, maybe the world, rides on it - and what have I got to vote for?

Grahame fucking Platner? This is not just about him - the whole state of Maine seems, these days, to be a complete joke, politically. Everyone in the state seems to be running for governor. At least every politician’s kid in the state. At least Hannah Pingree and Angus King III - who, on the merits, don’t seem awful - though King seems to have woken up from a coma from 1990 or something. He doesn’t want to fight! Well, bully for you Angus 3, bully for you. Now honestly, any of them might be all right, but there is nothing to get excited about among them. Meanwhile, the Republicans are reliably ridiculous - did you know that Bobby Charles is part of the woke left? I would never have guessed. I am not sure I want to trust the nuts who say so.

But that’s all a sideshow. There is a senate seat at stake, and the whole senate at stake, and in a non-trivial way, the fate of the Union. What are our choices? The Republicans offer Susan Collins again, rising from her jewel lined coffin with a look of deep concern on her face to go with her reliable Republican votes. And the Democrats? started out with Janet Mills - a reasonable respectable governor, who is just about as old as Collins, disliked by more or less everyone, and loathed by the right. She was joined in this race by Graham Platner - youngish, veteran, working man (at least someone who had done a days work in his life), preaching the Bernie gospel. He was an intriguing, even inspiring option - then we started to get to know him.

He comes with more baggage than Samsonite. A Totenkopf on his chest; stint with Blackwater, the mercenaries; years of being an idiot online. And now, as primary day approaches, revelations about sexting with women after his marriage, and allegations of mistreatment of women. Collins' surrogates have been making a meal of these things - though it's hard to see what they object to - since when is having white supremist tattoos and badmouthing and mistreating women, homophobia, racism etc detriments in the Republican Party? Their hit pieces sound like their own ads! But he has given them plenty of fodder and the bullshit keeps coming.

He is the presumptive nominee at this point - Mills dropped out months ago, no one else has joined the race - he's going to win the primary. And I am not going to waver from my conviction that in a general election, one votes for the party over the candidate - another D in the senate is worth swallowing a lot of shit. Taking the senate is worth almost any amount of shit. Is there any point that changes? Probably - when the allegations about abuse become credible, more credible - there's a limit to what you can write off as I was suffering from the war. I don't think we have reached that point - not for me, anyway - it might come. What I worry about most is that at this point, can he win at all? Are the allegations and past misdeeds done? there are 5 more months before the election - is there more bullshit to come? I can't imagine they have really thrown everything they have at him. Or that this is all he has done. This is going to keep coming. Maybe some of it will continue to be ambiguous, or old enough to say, he has changed, he really has, or any of the other mitigations offered. Maybe. But would I bet that way?

And it is not even, ultimately, about what I can swallow (and voters like me who would not vote for Susan Collins with gun to our heads.) It's about how much of this is going to chase off anyone wavering, anyone sick of Collins and Trump, but not quite willing to vote for a total asshole. The longer this goes, the more it benefits Susan Collins. And by this point - I don't know if there is any alternative. If the worst is true - could he drop out? he could, but to what end? Who will replace him? why would they have a better chance against Collins than he would? 

This is so fucking depressing. We need this seat. And this fuckhead is going to lose it for us. 

Though even more depressing - if he weren’t in the race, we’d be stuck with Mills, and she could lose it for us. She’d maintain something like dignity doing it, but she was never going to beat Collins. Could anyone have beaten Collins? I mean - yes! Platner, if he were what he says he is, yes - an actual decent version of Graham Platner? Yes - he could win. But that's not what we have - we have a guy with a Totenkopf, a guy who's been trashing women, blacks, gays online for decades, a guy who kinda cheated on his wife and might have treated other women badly. A guy whose defense is saying that he's changed - but why would we believe him?

It is galling. It is galling listening to people I wish knew better defend him, pretend to claim he is "authentic" or some shit like that. He is a completely transparent opportunist - out for himself, at the expense of anyone. Even that of course is better than Susan Collins - and if he voted what he says, he'd be well worth it. But I am about as confident of his unwavering support for Democratic politics as I am that there will be no more shocking revelations about his behavior. There is nothing there with this guy but the kind of borrowed credibility ge gets from people like Sanders and Warren and their ilk. 

It is a depressing time and place to be.

Baseball 2026

Once again, spring is here - it was here for real for a couple days this week, though it's back under freezing again. Does 2026 have another snowstorm lurking? probably - but who cares? it's baseball season. I am looking forward to it - the Crimson Hose being a fascinating squad once more. Last year in general was pretty entertaining. Can they keep it going? Here then are my not very well informed guesses as to what happens this year. 

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox - honestly, I don't know if I believe it; I am putting them here because I want them to win,a nd want to be able to crow if they do. In fact, I think they are good enough - but I think the Jays and Yankees are as good as last year, and more than capable of taking it. Thee sox should be good - they have a very solid looking rotation, and bunches of extra arms; they have a decent lineup, and a ocuple guys who could really step up. They have Roman Anthony who has all the makings of a genuine stud. Somethign about him feels like the second coming of Yaz - that's a good thing to have.

2. NY Yankees - I don't like it, but they were good enough last year, for all their troubles, and they'll have Cole back - I think all three fo these teams are going to the post-season, but the Yanks might be the best regular season team.

3. Toronto Blue Jays - an inning or so short of a World Series title and - they're close to the same. Again - all three should be post season bound, and they have been there before - they feel like the favorites to come out fo the American League over all. 

4. Baltimore Orioles - they picked up Pete Alonso, they have their young core, who were not as great last year as expected, but can still play. I would not be surprised if they were better than this - good enough for the last wild card spot? could well be. Though it is not a certainty.

5. Tampa Bay Rays - they are the Rays, they are back in the Trop, which is sure to be a boost, if only because any visitors view it with dread. I don't think they are likely to challenge for the post season, but it isn't impossible.

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers - they kept most of the team together. They looked like world beaters for a while last year, then dropped off the plant, then saved it at the bell, and played all right in the playoffs. I think they will be around this year, won't drop like that, and might have an easier time of it.

2. Cleveland Guardians - they came out of nowhere to get to the post season - can they again? I think the Tigers will be more consistent, and good, so it would be very hard. They do know how to hang around though, and they don't have anyone throwing games this year, that might help.

3. KC Royals - they have some talent, around Bobby Witt, around their good young pitching - get healthy, hit the ball and they might be okay. I think they have a hard hill to climb to reach the post season though.

4. Chicago White Sox - there is no reason to pick them here, except they did improve by 20 runs last year so another 10 is not impossible. Some youth coming into its own, who knows. 70 wins would be like the World Series for them, though.

5. Minnesota Twins - they have been imposing theist couple years, already lost a starter - I don't see much happening here, besides lots of offers for Joe Ryan.

AL West:

1. Seattle Mariners - they seem pretty well established as the cream out here. I don't see much reason for a regression as a team. Maybe this si their year!

2. Texas Rangers - will they stay healthy? can they get 160 innings from DeGrom and Eovaldi each? will Seager play all year? if things go right, they could be pretty good - they could also disappear. 

3. Houston Astros - they seem to be on the way out - though still dangerous. There is still plenty of talent, I suppose - some of it aging - maybe. I don't see them getting all that far - they don't look like they will be better than last year. The breaks in either direction could change things, but I see mediocrity.

4) Athletics - they will hammer the ball. Kurts, Rooker, Wilson, Langeliers, etc - they will hammer the ball. Do they have any pitching? will any of their pitchers make their sanity rolls pitching in Sacramento? Good question. But I could see them getting past a couple teams in the west.

5) California Angels - I don't think they are necessarily terrible. They certainly are not good. But one of these years Mike Trout is going to be happy and is going to have one pf those Remember Me seasons - if anyone else shows up, they might be better. Meaning - the west is a crap shoot,a nd most of these teams could almost be respectable in spite fo themselves.

NL East:

1) Philadelphia Phillies - this might depend on Zach Wheeler recovering sooner rather than later - but they have pitching, hitting - they have a team. I don't see as much potential for chaos as I go a bit further north up the coast. 

2) NY Mets - I don't want to pick them this high. They rearranged all the parts, some obviously better, some not so much, all of it with the potential for chaos. They have talent, though, and might well keep it together for once.

3) Atlanta Braves - they disappeared last year - will they come back? Acuna might be healthy, right? Olson and Riley and company are all decent - they have Sale and such in the rotation - they could be fine. They could be a good deal less than fine, if they keep losing pitchers though. 

4) Miami Marlins - I am know baseball better these days than the last couple years, but the Marlins might be the limit - I don't know if I can name a single player on the roster. Sandy Alcantera maybe? I think they have the makings of a passable mediocre team; more than that would be a shock.

5) Washington Nationals - I can name a couple of them! one anyway - James Wood! wait - CJ Abrams? Two then? I don't expect anything from them, but they might get into the 70s as well, I don't know.

NL Central:

1) Milwaukee Brewers - maybe a risk, but I think they will find their way back to the top of the Central. Maybe not top fo the majors, but they should still hold their own. Lots of depth and good players everywhere. They should be fine.

2) Chicago Cubs - they have talent, yes, but they are the Cubs and - I don't know. I actually saw most of their first game, and they did not inspire. I know they have talent, but I don't know if it is going to be enough.

3) Cincinnati Reds - they don't seem to have gotten better or worse - they were not that great last year. I think they will lurk where they were - low 80s, nip the playoff spot if no one else wants it. 

4) Pittsburgh Pirates - they have Skenes, they have some other players - they stunk the building out in their opener, but that was a pretty freaky inning, I don't see a lot of that coming. I don't know if the defense is as bad as it looked or if that was just the New York sun - I don't know. I think they are all right, I don't think they are going to win anything though. 

5) St Louis Cardinals - uh oh - another team I can't name a single player on? Ryne Stanek! I picked him up in fantasy, when he got his first save! I Alsop have Alec Burleson on a fantasy team, though it comes as a revelation that he is on the Cards. That's all I need to say here I think.

NL West:

1. LA Dodgers - will they win three on the trot? it was bloody close last year - there are still several teams that could match them in a 4 game series - it will be hard. Will they? they could. This may  cause some consternation, but I have a hard time being unhappy about teams that use their resources to become a better team. God knows plenty of them try, but the Dodgers are actually good at it. And honestly - if they win this year, that would give Mookie 5 rings, which matches Derek Jeter, and how can that be bad? (Will I carry this grudge to my grave? I will. Could Mookie have won four rings for Boston? he might have had a harder time, but he should have gotten a couple or three - match Papi and Pedroia (minus Manny Machado). The last few years in Bean town would have been a lot more fun and competitive with Mookie Betts on the team.) 

2. SD Padres - they should be in the wild card hunt. I say should. I see Nick Pivetta is back to normal. Still - they have talent, can they play together? they should be solid, but not very interesting.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks - they have some good players; they have been shedding them the last couple years, but still have the core. I don't expect a lot, but they usually hang around .500 and with some breaks can challenge for more. without the breaks - say goodbye to Ketel Marte.

4. SF Giants - mediocrity on the west coast. I don't see anything likely to change out there. Raffy Devers? I mean - might get some nice home run numbers but that's about all.

5. Colorado Rockies - I would hope they couldn't be any worse.

And filling in the blanks:

Playoffs = NY, Detroit, Seattle, Boston, Toronto and - Baltimore? don't ask me to pick the owner. I will say Boston, because that is what I want. though again - almost any of those teams except the Yankees would be more than satisfying.

NL = Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers - Mets, Padres and probably the Cubs. Dodgers would win through. I hope so, unless the Brew crew finally get there.

AL Awards: MVP - still Judge's to lose, but he's going to get company from Witt, Anthony and maybe Kurtz any time now. Cy Young - this year, I think Crochet takes it, though Skull is still the real deal. Rookie? McGonagle? right? I don't really know.

NL: MVP - remains Ohtani's to lose; when he does - Acuna, if he's completely recovered. Cy Young - Skenes should be, though he laid an egg yesterday; will the bunkers carry forwa4rd enough to hurt his chances? Christopher Sanchez looks like the real deal again. Sale still has the arm, Yamamoto's no slouch. Rookie - not sure - maybe Konnor Griffin, if the Pirates decide they need him up. 

Anniversary and Consequences

It has been five years since Donald Trump tried to overthrow the government. He failed then, but we did not hold him accountable, and he is back in charge, and fucking things up as bad as ever.

Venezuela? This is naked aggression, serving no good purpose. What does the administration (one hesitates to say "Trump" in this case, because there is no there there anymore, and everyone knows it) think they will get out of this? Oil? I suppose there is a chance, but the chaos created is more likely to make it more expensive than less. The drug running gag was never real. An excuse to deport hispanics? I am sure this is Stephen Miller's dream, but they have been doing that for a year, this isn't likely to help that much. I don't know. All we are doing is risking the creation of a long, ugly, occupation, alienation from even more of the world - for no gain, and without even the flimsy make believe excuses we used to invade Iraq in 2003. 

That said - talking about Venezuela means there is less talk about the Epstein files. Less talk about Trump's dementia. Less talk about the sagging economy. Less talk about ICE. Less talk about Jack Smith and January 6, 2021. All this fills up the airwaves with noise about Venezuela, giving the press, especially TV news, the excitement of a war - so, yes, it is a distraction.

But it is not likely to be a very effective distraction. The Epstein files are too big a deal to stop being an issue. Trump's dementia is not getting better, and this just reminds everyone how old and feeble he is. He and his cronies can't help themselves from reminding everyone what idiots they are - using this as an excuse to threaten Cuba and Mexico and Denmark and god knows who else - everything about it reminds us that Trump and his boys are like petty gangsters beating up random citizens to get the rest to pay them off. They might say they are defending Democracy in Venezuela, but they immediately start talking about stealing Greenland - I guess Democracy isn't the issue. None of this can go well - the rest of the world suffers, but Trump's gang won't get any benefits. The economy is not going to get better. The situation in Venezuela is far more likely to descend into chaos and violence than not. 

Of course, what it really means, is likely that Madura's check hasn't cleared yet. Trump has pardoned plenty of monsters already, sometimes for ideology, but usually, for ransom. Kidnaping Madura makes most sense on those terms - snatch him, and wait for someone to pay Trump and company off. They probably think they will get the oil out of this, as a bribe to not kidnap anyone else - but this is only going to work as long as people keep paying. 

Enough. End by saying that obviously Trump should be impeached over this. At some point, congress is going to have to stop calculating their odds, and just fight against him, any way than can. Trump should have been in prison in 2021; he should have been frog-marched out of the White House on January 6, 2021. When we didn't that, we should have made a point of getting him into stir as quickly as was seemly afterwards. We did not, and are paying for it. This time - we will have to do better, or we are going to have to deal with some scumbag imitator every 4 years for perpetuity. Treat him like the traitor he is. 

Rebooting the Calendar

Happy new year, world. 

I am not sorry to see 2025 go. 2025 sucked. From beginning to end - dominated by Donald Trump, doing all he can to fuck this country up six ways to Sunday, in the most embarrassing, shameful, idiotic way imaginable - what a nightmare. Is there any way this gets better? Well, there will be mid-terms this year, presumably, and if Trump doesn't send in the army, he is likely to lose all the congressional support he has. Though for that to matter, congress and Democrats have to do something - not just fend off the worst, but find a way to break the son of a bitch. I don't know. They should have done that in 2021 - he should have been frog-marched from the White House, probably on January 7, but January 21 would have worked. Letting him and his minions get away with trying to overthrow the government brought us to the disaster we are in today.

That's Trump. My pessimism about Democrats might be a function of being in Maine, and watching the ancient and infuriating Susan Collins running against the equally ancient, but usually pretty respectable Janet Mills, though Mills is likely to slot in with all the other ancient and respectable Democrats in congress. Who wants that? Unfortunately the most prominent alternative to those two is Graham Plattner, a guy who thought it was a good idea to get the Third SS Panzer badge emblazoned on his chest. Sure, it was a long time ago and he was drunk in Croatia, where I imagine this happens all the time - still, man, still! It took him until this year to do anything about it, and he ran his mouth more than once in those years and - I don't know. If he had ever served in any elected office in his life, we would at least have a track record to look at, but no. He's an "outsider"! He talks a good game - Bernie bro stuff - but that's talk, and a particularly cheap kind of talk at that. To me, he comes off as a shameless opportunist whose only real value is his own personal advancement. It is convenient for him to play the outsider, and to his credit he's playing the lefty outsider, but in the extremely unlikely event he ended up in Washington, I'd put my money on him turning into, at best, John Fetterman, at worst, Tulsi Gabbard. Though apparently he plans to wear a suit. 

What a hell hole this country has become.

Well, there is more to life than politics. There is, for example, Sport. As it happened, 2025 was a pretty entertaining year for sport. A very cool baseball season, with the local nine doing well, producing one of the most exciting young players in years, in Roman Anthony - promising to hang around. But all of baseball was fun this year - a fun season, a fantastic post season, lots of good young players coming up - it promises to stay fun, at least until they shut it down for a strike or lockout in a couple years. But there's a couple years before that happens. Beyond baseball, it has been a pretty good year locally - the C's are respectable, even with their best player out for most of the year, the B's are competent again, and the Patsies are back on top as if the post Brady years never happened. How thrilling!

2026 is also when the World Cup comes back to the US. Normally, that would be thrilling, but this year - yikes. No. The tournament itself is ridiculous, bloated and confusing, covering three countries and way too many teams. I haven't followed soccer close enough to know what to expect, and there isn't a lot making me do so. That and the fact that this is three straight world cups help in dictatorships. FIFA, of course, paid their proper bribe to the grifter in chief, but that is to be expected. Still - when push comes to shove I am more likely than not to get caught up in the fun. Maybe.

And? There is tech. My tech year has been a shit show. IPad dead; TV receiver dead; Mac mini dead; laptop screen dead - the cat bit it. Thanks, cat! That was fixed at least. And last week, my coffee grinder died! maybe the most horrible failure of them all! Alas - the wide world of technology does not seem to be doing any better. Everything is AI this and AI that, and it all sucks. This might even be made worse by the ways generative AI poisons the very idea of AI - which, I am told, can do many good things in other uses. I don't know enough to judge. I do know that that there are not a lot of technologies in 2025 that aero better than the same techs were in 2015 or 2005 even. Yeah, faster, lighter, sometimes cheaper - but I have seen people drop laptops and shatter the screens completely and the machines keep on working for years - mine died because the cat bit it!

All right; that's enough. It is time for 2026, which has almost infinite room to get better, though has not lack of ways to get worse. Let's hope for the best and get on with it. This year, let me try to be a better person. Try to post more often, once again; eat better, get more exercise, read more, write more, see more movies, pat the cat, be nice to people, backup my work (oh god) and go Red Sox! Good luck, 2026, you're going to need it.