World Cup 2026

My friends, the World Cup is back, in the USA, Mexico and Canada this time, with 48 teams - is that a good idea? I apologize to my reader for not posting about the 2022 World Cup - I managed a whole 7 posts that year, but nothing about the World Cup! That whole mess was a disgrace, in Qatar - though the cup itself turns out all right. The games on the field usually manage to salvage something - even when they suck - they are so much fun to watch.

I come into this one knowing as little as I have known since - lord, 2006 at least, maybe 2002 - I have not been watching soccer, I maintain just the passing sort of nostalgic interest these days. I wonder how much difference that makes? It looks like the usual suspects are going to win it - France, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, England all half hoping - can I tell you anything intelligent about any of them? Messi is still playing, so are Christiano Ronaldo and Luca Modric, probably more relevantly, so are Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, Bruno Fernandez, and maybe others I have heard of. Not good. That isn't what is going to stop me from trying to guess what's coming next - what's going to stop me is the ridiculous format. 

48 teams, playing into a 32 team knockout round. That's 8 third place teams getting to the next round (out of 12). That - is not conducive to prediction. There are lots of teams that could steal a couple, get into the quarters ahead of a powerhouse, even the Semis. for all that, the former is very likely to bring back a duller brand of soccer than we have seen lately - more minnows, meaning more 6-0 thrashing and 0-0 bus parkings, lots of incentive not to give up goals, so more defense - and a longer tournament, favoring deeper teams, as well as, again, more incentive to park the bus. And of course midsummer Texas heat. 

All right. I am going to take a stab at it - not that I know enough to say anything intelligent about any of it. Here goes - a quick assessment of the tiers of the cup:

S - teams that can win if they don't choke - this is Spain, France and Argentina, I think. If they play their games, they will get to the quarters and probably the semis, and 2 of them will probably make the finals.

A - teams that if things click can win it all: Brazil is not fancied, but they are Brazil; Germany has stunk in the last two cups, but they are themselves Germany. England is solid, and if they play they have the talent. And Portugal - they have a great team, they still have Ronaldo (whether that is good or bad is an open question - though they can always stick him in the box for the last 20 minutes of a game and hope he gets on a cross or a strong gust of wind comes through while a defender is within reach of him.) Or maybe they sit him and win anyway.

B - These are teams that need to massively overachieve I think, but can, and could get into the semis or win it, though it would be news: Morocco seems to have kept up what they were doing in 2022; Netherlands, Belgium - they still have talent; Croatia, until they prove they can't; Columbia seems to have some talent - they could do something. Mexico can ride the home field advantage, who knows how far. And Norway, because of Erling Haaland, and a good team, and who knows.

C - teams that are good enough to make some noise, but aren't going to win it: USA, Turkey, Senegal probably, South Korea, maybe Sweden? There might be some others - this area teams that look like a good pool for overachievement. 

Of course in the event, there will be shocking chokes, upsets and all the rest. Though the odds are all too good that the semis will be France, Spain, Argentina and Brazil, or maybe England. Someone will get into that mix, I imagine. Argentina is on a path to play Portugal in the quarters - the whole Brazil bracket looks like an upset waiting to happen. England might be favorites over them - and they could have to get past teams like Mexico, Netherlands or Croatia, Mexico, Senegal, and so on - things could get weird. And all of this is leaving out the possibility that someone like Portugal or Spain play for 3 ties, and sneak in as a random third place - who knows.

All things considered then? France is probably going to win. If I were betting I think I would put it on Portugal - bet those odds are better, and they are still a good team. In any case, much as this whole thing annoys me this year (the USA does not deserve to be hosting a World Cup; I do not like the trend of dividing these things up; 48 teams is ridiculous) I expect to be very entertained.

Platner Again

Graham Platner won. This is not a surprise - he was running unopposed, basically. I did not vote for him - primaries are where you get to vote what you want, whether it's policies or people or whatever grudges you might hold. I have no problem with primaries, even against entrenched figures - this is where you move the needle. And you don't get what you want - you nod your head and work on getting the nominee elected.

I should add - this is not the worst thing ever. For all my kvetching about him, he has his points. He has done bad things in the past - but they are in the past and people change. If he has changed - he has good points. He certainly talks a good game - tax the rich, clean up politics, etc - he seems to be on the right side in most cultural debates. His message is very appealing. I would be happier if he hadn't done or said the things he did and said, but I can live with them if he has really changed and if he delivers on his platform. If he does what he says, he could be a very good senator. And even if he doesn't, as long as he votes with the Democrats when he's supposed to - the party matters more than the person.

My most important worry is that he won't deliver on what he says. He has no political track record. He has plenty of personal track record, and most of it is bad. He can say anything he wants now, and once he's in, he's in. What then? Again - the D vote is worth almost anything, but you can never be sure of even that. There are too many precedents for people who talked well but didn't walk the walk, from Gabbard to Sinema to Fetterman (who's been beefing with Platner - Fetterman's hate might be a better endorsement than Sanders'.) So - that worries me. And it worries me that things keep coming out about him - are they done? Are they going to find anything really bad about him, that he can't explain away with a chorus of "I Saw The Light"? Can he, in short, really beat Susan Collins?

I don't know. I worry. But I am going to vote for him, barring some real disaster - and not going to hate myself for it. And if he is what he says he is - god bless him indeed!

Primary Season 2026

The primaries in Maine are coming on Tuesday, and I think I have to dip into this thing to say something. It is not a pleasant task. We stand at a point in history where every election feels like the fate of the nation, maybe the world, rides on it - and what have I got to vote for?

Grahame fucking Platner? This is not just about him - the whole state of Maine seems, these days, to be a complete joke, politically. Everyone in the state seems to be running for governor. At least every politician’s kid in the state. At least Hannah Pingree and Angus King III - who, on the merits, don’t seem awful - though King seems to have woken up from a coma from 1990 or something. He doesn’t want to fight! Well, bully for you Angus 3, bully for you. Now honestly, any of them might be all right, but there is nothing to get excited about among them. Meanwhile, the Republicans are reliably ridiculous - did you know that Bobby Charles is part of the woke left? I would never have guessed. I am not sure I want to trust the nuts who say so.

But that’s all a sideshow. There is a senate seat at stake, and the whole senate at stake, and in a non-trivial way, the fate of the Union. What are our choices? The Republicans offer Susan Collins again, rising from her jewel lined coffin with a look of deep concern on her face to go with her reliable Republican votes. And the Democrats? started out with Janet Mills - a reasonable respectable governor, who is just about as old as Collins, disliked by more or less everyone, and loathed by the right. She was joined in this race by Graham Platner - youngish, veteran, working man (at least someone who had done a days work in his life), preaching the Bernie gospel. He was an intriguing, even inspiring option - then we started to get to know him.

He comes with more baggage than Samsonite. A Totenkopf on his chest; stint with Blackwater, the mercenaries; years of being an idiot online. And now, as primary day approaches, revelations about sexting with women after his marriage, and allegations of mistreatment of women. Collins' surrogates have been making a meal of these things - though it's hard to see what they object to - since when is having white supremist tattoos and badmouthing and mistreating women, homophobia, racism etc detriments in the Republican Party? Their hit pieces sound like their own ads! But he has given them plenty of fodder and the bullshit keeps coming.

He is the presumptive nominee at this point - Mills dropped out months ago, no one else has joined the race - he's going to win the primary. And I am not going to waver from my conviction that in a general election, one votes for the party over the candidate - another D in the senate is worth swallowing a lot of shit. Taking the senate is worth almost any amount of shit. Is there any point that changes? Probably - when the allegations about abuse become credible, more credible - there's a limit to what you can write off as I was suffering from the war. I don't think we have reached that point - not for me, anyway - it might come. What I worry about most is that at this point, can he win at all? Are the allegations and past misdeeds done? there are 5 more months before the election - is there more bullshit to come? I can't imagine they have really thrown everything they have at him. Or that this is all he has done. This is going to keep coming. Maybe some of it will continue to be ambiguous, or old enough to say, he has changed, he really has, or any of the other mitigations offered. Maybe. But would I bet that way?

And it is not even, ultimately, about what I can swallow (and voters like me who would not vote for Susan Collins with gun to our heads.) It's about how much of this is going to chase off anyone wavering, anyone sick of Collins and Trump, but not quite willing to vote for a total asshole. The longer this goes, the more it benefits Susan Collins. And by this point - I don't know if there is any alternative. If the worst is true - could he drop out? he could, but to what end? Who will replace him? why would they have a better chance against Collins than he would? 

This is so fucking depressing. We need this seat. And this fuckhead is going to lose it for us. 

Though even more depressing - if he weren’t in the race, we’d be stuck with Mills, and she could lose it for us. She’d maintain something like dignity doing it, but she was never going to beat Collins. Could anyone have beaten Collins? I mean - yes! Platner, if he were what he says he is, yes - an actual decent version of Graham Platner? Yes - he could win. But that's not what we have - we have a guy with a Totenkopf, a guy who's been trashing women, blacks, gays online for decades, a guy who kinda cheated on his wife and might have treated other women badly. A guy whose defense is saying that he's changed - but why would we believe him?

It is galling. It is galling listening to people I wish knew better defend him, pretend to claim he is "authentic" or some shit like that. He is a completely transparent opportunist - out for himself, at the expense of anyone. Even that of course is better than Susan Collins - and if he voted what he says, he'd be well worth it. But I am about as confident of his unwavering support for Democratic politics as I am that there will be no more shocking revelations about his behavior. There is nothing there with this guy but the kind of borrowed credibility ge gets from people like Sanders and Warren and their ilk. 

It is a depressing time and place to be.