My friends, the World Cup is back, in the USA, Mexico and Canada this time, with 48 teams - is that a good idea? I apologize to my reader for not posting about the 2022 World Cup - I managed a whole 7 posts that year, but nothing about the World Cup! That whole mess was a disgrace, in Qatar - though the cup itself turns out all right. The games on the field usually manage to salvage something - even when they suck - they are so much fun to watch.
I come into this one knowing as little as I have known since - lord, 2006 at least, maybe 2002 - I have not been watching soccer, I maintain just the passing sort of nostalgic interest these days. I wonder how much difference that makes? It looks like the usual suspects are going to win it - France, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, England all half hoping - can I tell you anything intelligent about any of them? Messi is still playing, so are Christiano Ronaldo and Luca Modric, probably more relevantly, so are Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, Bruno Fernandez, and maybe others I have heard of. Not good. That isn't what is going to stop me from trying to guess what's coming next - what's going to stop me is the ridiculous format.
48 teams, playing into a 32 team knockout round. That's 8 third place teams getting to the next round (out of 12). That - is not conducive to prediction. There are lots of teams that could steal a couple, get into the quarters ahead of a powerhouse, even the Semis. for all that, the former is very likely to bring back a duller brand of soccer than we have seen lately - more minnows, meaning more 6-0 thrashing and 0-0 bus parkings, lots of incentive not to give up goals, so more defense - and a longer tournament, favoring deeper teams, as well as, again, more incentive to park the bus. And of course midsummer Texas heat.
All right. I am going to take a stab at it - not that I know enough to say anything intelligent about any of it. Here goes - a quick assessment of the tiers of the cup:
S - teams that can win if they don't choke - this is Spain, France and Argentina, I think. If they play their games, they will get to the quarters and probably the semis, and 2 of them will probably make the finals.
A - teams that if things click can win it all: Brazil is not fancied, but they are Brazil; Germany has stunk in the last two cups, but they are themselves Germany. England is solid, and if they play they have the talent. And Portugal - they have a great team, they still have Ronaldo (whether that is good or bad is an open question - though they can always stick him in the box for the last 20 minutes of a game and hope he gets on a cross or a strong gust of wind comes through while a defender is within reach of him.) Or maybe they sit him and win anyway.
B - These are teams that need to massively overachieve I think, but can, and could get into the semis or win it, though it would be news: Morocco seems to have kept up what they were doing in 2022; Netherlands, Belgium - they still have talent; Croatia, until they prove they can't; Columbia seems to have some talent - they could do something. Mexico can ride the home field advantage, who knows how far. And Norway, because of Erling Haaland, and a good team, and who knows.
C - teams that are good enough to make some noise, but aren't going to win it: USA, Turkey, Senegal probably, South Korea, maybe Sweden? There might be some others - this area teams that look like a good pool for overachievement.
Of course in the event, there will be shocking chokes, upsets and all the rest. Though the odds are all too good that the semis will be France, Spain, Argentina and Brazil, or maybe England. Someone will get into that mix, I imagine. Argentina is on a path to play Portugal in the quarters - the whole Brazil bracket looks like an upset waiting to happen. England might be favorites over them - and they could have to get past teams like Mexico, Netherlands or Croatia, Mexico, Senegal, and so on - things could get weird. And all of this is leaving out the possibility that someone like Portugal or Spain play for 3 ties, and sneak in as a random third place - who knows.
All things considered then? France is probably going to win. If I were betting I think I would put it on Portugal - bet those odds are better, and they are still a good team. In any case, much as this whole thing annoys me this year (the USA does not deserve to be hosting a World Cup; I do not like the trend of dividing these things up; 48 teams is ridiculous) I expect to be very entertained.
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