Baseball Post Season Guesses

Holy Cow! Baseball season is over! almost! Playoffs! A Play In to the Play Offs! etc! After last year's 0-8 debacle, I should know better than to go on record picking anything: but I never learn. It's too bad the Padres and Rockies are already underway: if not, I'd have a chance to go 0-9 this year! It looks like I'm already on the way: the Rockies are up 3-0 as of this writing, and I would not have picked them. In fact - this is a good time to offer free advice: Rockies to win it all: because if I match last year, they'll be taking it all.

But that was a fluke. I hope. No - this year I have a rooting interest again! that has to help... though not much, because, like last year, I don't see much separating any of the teams in the playoffs. There is a pretty obvious gap between the AL and the NL this year - the win loss records reflect the quality of the teams - all the AL teams look significantly better than any of the NL teams. Within the leagues, there doesn't seem a lot to pick between. But that won't stop me.

AL 1: BOSTON over Anaheim: I am not picking against the Red Sox anywhere in the post-season. That is the rooting interest - and there is more. They had the best record in baseball - and probably are the best team in baseball. They lagged after the fast start - injuries (Schilling at the beginning of summer, Wake at the end, Manny in September), fatigue, especially to the Japanese pitchers, slumps and such slowed them down - never enough to put them in serious danger of missing the playoffs, but enough to make people lose track of how good they are when they are all together. They've put things back together the last week or so - rested Okajima and Matsuzaka (who's had a couple nice starts to end the season); gotten Manny and Youk and Coco back in the lineup; the DL stint seems to have preserved Schilling - he seems fresh enough to be something like his self in the post-season; and all the injuries gave Ellsbury a chance to develop into what could be a series breaking wild card. So - I say they go all the way.... But I say that knowing well that there isn't a lot of difference between them and the Angels - who have tough pitching, enough offense, and are playoff hardened enough to win it all themselves. It's a close match: I say Red Sox out of loyalty as much as anything.

AL 2: CLEVELAND over the Yankees: granted, the Yanks have had their number; granted the Yanks can beat the bejesus out of the ball; granted the Yanks are hardened veterans - some of them played in the very first World Series, I think! Still - I think the Yankees are clearly inferior to the rest of the AL post-season pack - because pitching catches up with hitting sooner or later in the post-season, and all three other teams have genuinely superb pitching. The Yankees pitchers were also superb - in 1998 (Clemens, Mussina, Pettitte?).... The Yanks have to get past 2 teams with better pitching than they have. They might as well fall to the Indians.

And then, I think whoever wins this series will get sent home by Boston or Anaheim. The Red Sox/Angels series should determine the world series winner. I probably would have said that about the Twins and A's last year, and you saw how that turned out. But truthfully, last year was weird: usually, there are 2-3 genuinely superior teams in the post-season and they end up winning it - I think it's that way this year. Last year you couldn't really tell - you could make a case for anyone (except the team that actually won it). This year, you can make a strong case for the Sox and Angels, a solid case for the Indians, and maybe the Yankees. Go Sox!

NL 1: PHILLIES over TBD - actually, I don't know if I believe that. The Padres, if they win, have a very deep rotation, nice bullpen and all - missing 2/3 of their outfield will probably sink them though. The Phils are the NL version of the Yankees without the pitching. They should club their way through this series, but it's a closa call against SD - they should not get past the next team. And they are not going to beat any of the AL teams.

NL 2: ARIZONA over the Cubbies: I could be wrong. The Cubs didn't win all that much, but they have some very nice players, a couple strong pitchers at the top of the rotation... But I think the Snakes are more balanced - and they aren't the Cubs. Though I can see the Cubs getting hot for a month and going far. Maybe this will be a Chicago - Cleveland World Series! it's too late for the Red Sox/Cubs apocalypse - but the Indians would be an okay substitute.

But more likely, the Diamondbacks win that series - and the next one (unless the Pads get going - they're up 5-4, by the time I finished the post, so maybe... if they do, I am going to pick them t win another one)- and lose in the world series.