There's an Award Show today, isn't there?

If I were going to watch it, this would be the year, I suppose. 2 honest to god outstanding films up for best picture - another very solid achievement in Michael Clayton, and even Juno, whatever its flaws, isn't embarrassing. Which of course means that Atonement will win. Anyway - everyone else will be watching it and writing about it: taking a not quite random sampling - here's The House Next Door's Oscar link page; Edward Copeland and company predict; and if I decide to pay any attention to it, I'm as likely to read Moviezzz' live-blog as to watch it. I have to wrap up - I'm going to see one of the many controversial films not in this year's Oscar race - The Band's Visit starts in 45 minutes: I'd best get going.

And of course the thing itself: the TV page, and the Academy's page.

Anyway, none of this is any fun without predictions and snark, so without further ado, the ones that interest me, at least a little:

Best Picture:

* Atonement - will win, because the worst film with a chance will win, and this has to be the worst of these films, not that I have any intention of testing that theory empirically.
* Juno
* Michael Clayton
* No Country for Old Men - this one could win, and if it does, may portend a laudable shift toward good films being rewarded. But I've thought that before.
* There Will Be Blood - this is what should win; this is a great film - and time may reveal it6 to be even more than that.

Achievement in Directing

* Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
* Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men - I think they'll win this one, even if they don't win best picture. Maybe they should, though Anderson and Schnabel more than hold their own.
* Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
* Jason Reitman, Juno
* Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

* George Clooney, Michael Clayton
* Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood - I assume he will win, as he probably should
* Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
* Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
* Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

* Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
* Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men - This is a good guess to win, and certainly deserving.
* Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
* Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
* Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

* Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
* Julie Christie, Away from Her -another good guess, and the best... though this was not a year for the ladies, I'm afraid. The big downside of those 70s channeling genre films...
* Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
* Laura Linney, The Savages
* Ellen Page, Juno

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

* Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There - this is my vote; it's a reasonable guess too, though the talk about it seems to have faded once the film came out.
* Ruby Dee, American Gangster
* Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
* Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
* Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

* Persepolis
* Ratatouille - this will win, which is more than fair; this and Persepolis should replace Juno and Atonement in the best picture race.
* Surf's Up

Original Screenplay

* Diablo Cody, Juno - this is going to win, I imagine
* Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
* Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
* Brad Bird, Ratatouille - this is the one that probably should win
* Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Adapted Screenplay

* Christopher Hampton, Atonement
* Sarah Polley, Away from Her
* Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
* Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men - I don't know if it will win, but it's a fine choice. As are most of the rest - which means Atonement will probably win....
* Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year - Ha ha ha ha ha!

* Beaufort (Israel)
* The Counterfeiters (Austria)
* Katyn (Poland)
* Mongol (Kazakhstan)
* 12 (Russia)

Achievement in cinematography

* “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
* “Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
* “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
* “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
* “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit - another strong slate, but this is probably where I'd vote. It was a good year for the cameramen, and no mistake.