Baseball Playoffs

Ah, baseball. Last year I jumped the gun, starting my post-season picks before I knew who was really in the post-season. This year, have been holding off - but they're still at it! make up games and playoffs - Lord! Well, I have to do it - I won't have time tomorrow, and the games will start tomorrow, and - all right! Here goes! predictions and everything!

AL 1: ANAHEIM over Boston: if I had to bet... I'll say what I said last year: the winner of this series should win it all. My rooting interest is Boston, of course, but with Beckett up in the air, and Lowell and Drew iffy, the advantage has to go to the halos. Last year, I underestimated the Angels' injuries - with Anderson and Vlad off their game, they weren't going anywhere. The Sox, I think, are in better shape than that - but without Beckett, they are a very long shot. The news is good, on Beckett, though - and Lester is the real deal; Dice-K - you tell me. He seems unhittable when his head is in it - if that translates to the post-season, and Beckett pitches, the Sox could be in good shape here. But for all that - California (I promise to refer to them by every name they've had in the last 50 years) was a good team last year, and even better this year - deep rotation, deep bullpen, and deeper lineup, along with better players at the top - Vlad is off, but lesser Vlad is still pretty damned good (like lesser David Ortiz) but Texeira is playing like he means it. So -good series, Angels have the advantage, but the Sox are in the thick of it - and, I say again - the winner of this should win it all.

AL 2: TAMPA BAY over AL Central Champ: why not? The Rays have deep pitching, a nice, balanced lineup, they've been winning big games all month - neither of the Central teams are perfect, though both have merits. The Twins have a sneaky good offense, solid pitching - the White Sox good pitching, lots of pop in the lineup - can't catch a ball which could kill them in a tight series, against teams that do catch the ball. So Tampa, I say. Setting up a heck of a second round.

NL 1: CHICAGO over LA: this is the logical pick - Cubs have good starting pitching, okay bullpen, tons of offense - while LA dragged to a barely over .500 finish. BUt they too have a great rotation, deep bullpen - and freaking Manny, playing like it's 1999. So the Dodgers could steal it - or disappear - who knows. Cubs have to be the favorites here - but don't rule the Dodgers out.

NL 2: PHILLIES over Milwaukee - I guess. Brewers had to run themselves to the edge to get there - Sabathia pitching every day for a month, it seems - and I'm not sure what they can do now. Phillies came on strong - failed to maintain the longest stretch of 80s win seasons ever by getting to 92 - they have better starters than it looks, with Moyer and Hamels and Myers (before those last 2 starts: holy crap!), and decent relief pitching, and they Can Hit. So - I expect - Phillies win. Though won't be shocked if I'm wrong.

Second round: Angels (or Sox) over Tampa; good god - I'm in position to pick the Cubs to make the world series! Okay - fine: they make it. (If LA wins, they make it.) AL team wins all.

And now: let's do some end of season awards.

AL MVP: this is tough - as a homer, I should take Pedroia or Youkilis - though Mauer (batting leader, catcher) is a fine pick. In fact, there seem to be a lot of players deserving it - most of the teams in contention this year did it with balanced, deep attacks, rather than spectacular performances. So - I say Pedroia: gold glove second baseman, spark-plug for the team all year - but Youk and Mauer are excelent choices, and Morneau is a better pick this year than the year he won. (That was a disgrace.)

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, easy.

AL Rookie: Evan Langoria - if he had made the team out of spring training and not gotten hurt he;d probably be joining Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki and MVP/ROY co-winners.

NL MVP: Pujols - the arguments are simple - he had a monster year - he kept a very mediocre team in contention. Pujols.

NL Cy Young: interesting race - most people say it comes down to wins vs. numbers, Webb vs. Lincecum - but if that's your choice: why not Santana? who had the same numbers as Lincecum, basically. The other complicating factor is that Webb in fact, had almost the same numbers as Lincecum - worse ERA, but in a better hitter's park. Lincecum had the strikeouts, but that's a glamor stat - meaningless except as a predictor of future success. So - here's the real question - if a guy leads the league in shut outs -leads both leagues in shut outs - leads the majors in IP and complete games, singlehandedly pitches his team to the playoffs: how many votes should he get for Cy Young? I'd be tempted to vote for Sabathia. BUt I think I'd actually vote for Lincecum, barely. But if Webb wins, don't let anyone tell you the voters only look at the wins. Even if it's true - he was just as good as Lincecum. WHIP is where it's at.

NL Rookie: Geovany Soto, obviously.

Onwards! Thanks to the wonders of the 1-0 pitching duel, the White Sox made the playoffs before I finished this post. Whoo hoo! Actually - crap. I wanted the Twins to win. (Yes, I picked them to finish last - so what?) The White Sox managed to be barely better than my 65-85 wins prediction, and just as unpredictable - look at the last week alone. Anyway - this doesn't change anything - Tampa should beat them anyway. I hope so. The Rays might be the Mortal Enemies of the Home Town 9, but they are also One Hell of a Story - and have armies of players I love, from Carlos Pena (of Northeastern University!) and Rocco Baldelli (pride of Rhode Island!) to Cliff Floyd (Expo!) to Scott Kazmir (oh, those poor Mets) to Grant Ball Four to scrubs making good again like Eric Hinske. So - see you in the second round, I hope! (And if the Sox fail - the Angels have always made a good fall back team.) It;s all good as long as the Dodgers lose.