It has been a very good season for us Red Sox fans - AL East champions; best record in baseball (along with the Cards); best offense in baseball - solid pitching. I wish I'd picked them to win, not finish second - behind the Blue Jays? (oy.) But hey - give me credit for waffling, and give the Red Sox credit for hitting all the things I said needed to happen to win - "If Lester and Buckholtz bounce back" - they sure did (though Buckholz missed a third of the year).... "if Lackey and Dempster can be effective and stay on the field (I'm more optimistic about Lackey's effectiveness and Dempster's durability than the opposites)" - LAckey was as durable as he was effective (and he sure was effective); Dempster was durable and reasonably effective... "if Dubront can be a bit more consistent" - well - he was up and down, but his ups were up quite a ways.... The offense did drive line drives and doubles all over the place - no one (except Ortiz) really had a great year, but everyone, 12 or 13 deep, had good years... they had speed, they have a decent defense... I thought they had a "deep and effective bullpen" - thank god I was right, since half of it went on the DL. But Koji Uehara stayed healthy, and pitched a bit better than he has over his career (you know he's only once had a WHIP over 1 in his American career? has a career WHIP under 1? well under 1 - around .83? that he has 332K and 38 walks in 286 innings? this year was ridiculously good, but it's not really out of line with his career. Except for the 74 innings.) Tazawa and Breslow were outstanding. They kept it together. It's been something to see.
Well - the playoffs are here. Making predictions, in this brave new world of play in playoffs, with a wild card tie tonight and the wild card game tomorrow - might be a fool's errand, but what they hell. I can be a fool.
Boston vs. Wild Card winner - I suppose I should try to predict the wild card winner. Tampa is probably the team that should win... but I don't know. It's tough to cheer - I like the Rangers - but I like Tito too, and always pull a bit for the Indians... and running the table at the end of the year, even against the dregs (Houston and Minnesota), is something to see. Dennis Eckersly last week was saying it - all Cleveland has to do is win all their games against Houston and Minnesota and they're in - and they did it.... Unfortunately, neither Texas nor Tampa are the Astros or the Twins - and the Red Sox are another matter altogether.... My guess is Tampa vs. Boston - the Sox have been beating Tampa lately, so maybe that's good. I do think the Sox should win this - they have the pitching, they have offense, they have the ability, with Ellsbury and Victorino and Pedroia to manufacture runs - they should be all right.
Detroit vs. Oakland - Oakland is at home, but I think the Tigers take this easily enough. They have the power pitchers - a deep rotation - like most of the teams in the playoffs. They have no bullpen, but they have the bats - assuming Cabrera is playing. Oakland, I think, has a better regular season team - less power arms, less balance on the offense. Bartolo Colon, aged 40, won 18 games. My god.
The second round, then, I would expect to be Boston and Detroit - which I think the Sox can take. Getting into the bullpens of these teams is going to tip things to the Sox - I think they are all right...
In the NL - Pittsburgh and Cincinnati play the wild card game - I don't know how to pick them; I like them both; say it's the home team!
St. Louis vs. Wild Card - I would expect the Cards to take this, they can hit, they have pitching, a nice bullpen - though neither of the other teams would be an upset. I figured this division would be one of the toughest to predict, and there's not a lot separating these three teams - the Cards only pulled away at the end, and not too far...
Atlanta vs. LA - this at least offers a clear rooting interest, since I hate the Dodgers with the fires of hell, and have always liked the Braves. And with the Braves pitching, I see no reason to pick against them. Though Clayton Kershaw makes a pretty good reason....
Second round: The Braves haven't managed to figure out how to get out of the NL, and I don't expect to see it this year. The Cards, disappointingly enough, are the most likely team to get out. I would dearly love to see a Boston Pittsburgh series, though.
And now - like last year, let me take a stab at the seasonal awards:
AL MVP - Mike Trout had another mind-blowing season; Miguel Cabrera put up mind-blowing stats; Chris Davis hit a ton of home runs. I imagine the voters will give it to Cabrera, since the Tigers won... Trout is probably the best player in the league - but with his team out of contention, it's hard to feel too offended by the voters going with the OPS winner. Though - I wonder if anyone will consider Uehara and his half a baserunner an inning. Probably not with Davis and Cabrera putting up big counting stats - but still...
AL Cy Young - some nice contenders, but Scherzer's year - 21 wins, top in WHIP, second in K's - that works for me.
AL Rookie - I'm not sure - maybe I'm forgetting someone... Will Myers seems like a good choice... Jose Iglesias has a case. I'd pick Myers.
NL MVP - this is not easy - numbers were way down in the NL this year - 3 guys with 30 home runs? On the sheer stats - it might be Paul Goldschmidt's year - but MVP ought to include something about the team, and the Diamondbacks were nothing special. Personally, I think it should come down to Matt Carpenter and Andrew McCutcheon - the best players on a couple of the best teams - along with Freddie Freeman. I think I'd vote for Carpenter, myself...
Cy Young - actually, you could make a very good case for Clayton Kershaw for MVP. If he doesn't win the Cy Young award, fire all the writers.
Rookie of the Year - Yasiel Puig is probably the guy everyone will vote for - and probably for good cause. He's not far off the MVP race. But don't discount what Jose Fernandez did in Miami; aged 20. (I wasn't too far off with Shelby Miller - though he's not up to Fernandez. The NL is stocked with rather thrilling young pitchers - those guys and Patrick Corbin, and Matt Harvey, if he comes back like Strasburg did - and Strasburg himself is only 25. Though Kershaw himself is only 25, and has become as dominant as Verlander (before this year) has been in the AL...
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Sound predictions Stephen! Us Yankee fans are crying in our beer, but it was obvious many weeks back that the Bronx Bombers were going nowhere. A big congratulations to you on the Rex Sox dominance and a tie for the very best record in baseball. I'd say they are the odds-on favorite to win the AL crown and earn a WS spot. Only Oakland of the teams that are in would appear to be a possible upset winner. Agreed that Atlanta and the Cards would seem to be the teams to beat in the NL, though the Braves never manage to get out of the first round. I'll be watching for sure. I expected Tampa to beat Texas in that wild card showdown for the right to face Cleveland. The Indians are really hot, having won ten straight.
It's kind of amazing the Yankees did as well as they did, with the injuries and age and angst the team went through. Testament to some of those guys. They're going to be in trouble next year without the 5 ring guys around... I am a die hard yankee hater, but I've never quite been able to hate Pettitte or Mo, or even Jeter, really. Anyway - it will be a fun post-season. I can make a pretty good case why any team in it could win it all (except maybe the Indians, though they are certainly hot - though those last 10 wins came against teams that lost 210 games between them, so might not carry quite as much weight against the Sox or Rays or Tigers...)
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